Matthew Stafford Rushing Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 4

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Matthew Stafford

NFL · Player Props

Matthew Stafford

QB · Los Angeles Rams

Rushing Yards

San Francisco 49ers vs Los Angeles Rams · Week 4, 2022

Updated Oct 3, 2022 11:25 PM UTC

Analysis

Matthew Stafford Rushing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 2.5 (-101/-135).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 2.5 @ -117 before it was bet down to 2.5 @ -135.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Los Angeles Rams have played in the 2nd-most "low wind" (4-mph or less) games in the league since the start of last season, which ought to mean reduced pass volume, higher running volume, and reduced passing offense results when facing windier conditions in this week's contest.
THE BLITZ projects Matthew Stafford to be a much bigger part of his team's run game this week (6.3% projected Carry Share) than he has been this year (0.0% in games he has played).
The Los Angeles Rams offensive line profiles as the 6th-best in the league since the start of last season in run blocking.
The Los Angeles Rams have gone no-huddle on 15.8% of their plays outside the two-minute warning since the start of last season (3rd-most in the NFL). This quickens the pace, resulting in more volume and stat production.

Favors Under

THE BLITZ projects the Los Angeles Rams as the least run-centric team on the slate this week with a 35.9% run rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects the Rams to run the least plays on offense on the slate this week with 61.5 plays, given their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
The Los Angeles Rams have run the 2nd-least plays in the league since the start of last season, totaling a mere 57.2 plays per game.
THE BLITZ projects Matthew Stafford to accumulate 1.4 carries this week, on average: the least of all QBs.
Matthew Stafford has averaged a measly 3.0 yards per game on the ground since the start of last season, one of the lowest marks in the league among QBs (11th percentile).

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