Matthew Stafford Rushing Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 3

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Matthew Stafford

NFL · Player Props

Matthew Stafford

QB · Los Angeles Rams

Rushing Yards

Arizona Cardinals vs Los Angeles Rams · Week 3, 2022

Updated Sep 25, 2022 11:30 PM EST

Analysis

Matthew Stafford Rushing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 1.5 (-101/-130).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 1.5 @ -107 before it was bet down to 1.5 @ -130.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Rams are a 3.5-point favorite this week, likely creating a rushing game script.
THE BLITZ projects Matthew Stafford to be a more integral piece of his team's rushing attack this week (6.4% projected Carry Share) than he has been since the start of last season (1.3% in games he has played).
The Los Angeles Rams O-line profiles as the 5th-best in the league since the start of last season at blocking for rushers.
The Los Angeles Rams have gone no-huddle on 15.8% of their plays outside the two-minute warning since the start of last season (3rd-most in the NFL). This speeds up the pace, leading to more volume and stat-padding.

Favors Under

THE BLITZ projects the Los Angeles Rams as the least run-heavy offense among all teams this week with a 35.3% run rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects the Los Angeles Rams as the 3rd-slowest paced defense in the league (in a neutral context) right now, with opposing offenses averaging 28.46 seconds per play.
This game will be played in a dome—which means zero wind, higher pass volume, higher TD potential, and increased passing efficiency.
THE BLITZ projects Matthew Stafford to earn 1.4 rush attempts in this game, on average: the 3rd-least of all QBs.
Matthew Stafford has picked up a measly 3.0 yards per game on the ground since the start of last season, one of the smallest marks in the NFL among QBs (8th percentile).

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