Matthew Stafford Rushing Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 2

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Matthew Stafford

NFL · Player Props

Matthew Stafford

QB · Los Angeles Rams

Rushing Yards

Los Angeles Rams vs Atlanta Falcons · Week 2, 2022

Updated Sep 18, 2022 11:25 PM UTC

Analysis

Matthew Stafford Rushing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 1.5 (-120/-110).

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Rams are an enormous 10.5-point favorite in this game, likely leading to an extreme rushing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Rams to call the 4th-most plays on offense among all teams this week with 65.7 plays, given their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects Matthew Stafford to be a much bigger part of his team's rushing attack this week (7.1% projected Carry Share) than he has been since the start of last season (1.7% in games he has played).
The Los Angeles Rams offensive line profiles as the 5th-best in football since the start of last season at run-game blocking.
Opposing offenses have rushed for the 6th-most yards in football (136 per game) vs. the Atlanta Falcons defense since the start of last season.

Favors Under

THE BLITZ projects the Los Angeles Rams to be the 7th-least run-centric offense in the league (adjusted for context) right now with a 36.0% run rate.
The Los Angeles Rams have run the 10th-least plays in football since the start of last season, averaging a mere 61.4 plays per game.
The forecast calls for 0-mph wind in this game. Low wind usually means increased pass volume, increased TD potential, and better passing efficiency.
THE BLITZ projects Matthew Stafford to accumulate 1.9 carries in this week's contest, on average: the 5th-least of all quarterbacks.
Matthew Stafford has picked up a mere 3.0 yards per game on the ground since the start of last season, one of the smallest figures in football among QBs (8th percentile).

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