Matthew Stafford Rushing Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 11

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Matthew Stafford

NFL · Player Props

Matthew Stafford

QB · Los Angeles Rams

Rushing Yards

New Orleans Saints vs Los Angeles Rams · Week 11, 2022

Updated Nov 21, 2022 1:01 AM UTC

Analysis

Matthew Stafford Rushing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 2.5 (+112/-149).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 1.5 @ -133 before it was bet up to 2.5 @ +112.

Key Factors

Favors Over

Opposing teams have run for the 10th-most yards in football (134 per game) versus the New Orleans Saints defense this year.
The New Orleans Saints have stacked the box vs. opponents on just 13.5% of their plays since the start of last season, 9th-least in the league. Choosing not to keep an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves pass defense at the expense of run-stopping.
The Los Angeles Rams have gone no-huddle on 15.8% of their plays outside the two-minute warning since the start of last season (3rd-most in football). This speeds up the pace, resulting in more volume and stat-padding.

Favors Under

THE BLITZ projects the Los Angeles Rams as the 5th-least run-heavy offense on the slate this week with a 34.8% run rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects the Rams to call the 6th-least offensive plays on the slate this week with 62.9 plays, accounting for their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
This game will be played in a dome—meaning no wind, higher pass volume, higher touchdown potential, and increased passing efficiency.
THE BLITZ projects Matthew Stafford to accrue 1.4 rush attempts in this game, on average: the 2nd-least of all QBs.
The Los Angeles Rams O-line ranks as the worst in the league this year at blocking for rushers.

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