Matthew Stafford Rushing Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 1

NFL · Player Props

Matthew Stafford

QB · Los Angeles Rams

Rushing Yards

Los Angeles Rams vs Buffalo Bills · Week 1, 2022

Updated Sep 9, 2022 12:16 AM EST

Analysis

Matthew Stafford Rushing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 1.5 (-160/+120).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 1.5 @ -150 before it was bet up to 1.5 @ -160.

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects the Rams to run the 4th-most offensive plays on the slate this week with 64.6 plays, accounting for their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
The Los Angeles Rams have played in the 2nd-most "low wind" (4-mph or less) games in the league since the start of last season, which should lead to lower pass volume, higher running volume, and reduced passing offense efficiency when facing windier conditions in this week's contest.
THE BLITZ projects Matthew Stafford to be a much bigger part of his team's run game this week (7.8% projected Carry Share) than he has been since the start of last season (1.4% in games he has played).
The Los Angeles Rams O-line profiles as the 6th-best in football since the start of last season at blocking for rushers.
The Los Angeles Rams have gone no-huddle on 15.8% of their play-calls outside the two-minute warning since the start of last season (3rd-most in the league). This speeds up the pace, leading to more volume and stat accumulation.

Favors Under

THE BLITZ projects the Los Angeles Rams as the 2nd-least run-heavy team among all teams this week with a 34.9% run rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
The forecast calls for 1-mph wind in this game. Low wind usually means increased pass volume, increased TD potential, and better passing effectiveness.
THE BLITZ projects Matthew Stafford to accumulate 1.8 carries in this game, on average: the 4th-least of all quarterbacks.
Matthew Stafford has generated a mere 3.0 yards per game on the ground since the start of last season, one of the lowest figures in the league among quarterbacks (9th percentile).
Matthew Stafford has been among the weakest QBs in football at picking up extra running yardage, averaging a measly 0.16 yards-after-contact since the start of last season while grading out in the 3rd percentile.