Matthew Stafford Passing Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 3

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Matthew Stafford

NFL · Player Props

Matthew Stafford

QB · Los Angeles Rams

Passing Yards

Cincinnati Bengals vs Los Angeles Rams · Week 3, 2023

Updated Sep 25, 2023 11:26 PM UTC

Analysis

Matthew Stafford Passing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 253.5 (-125/-105).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 250.5 @ -115 before it was bet up to 253.5 @ -125.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Rams are a 3-point underdog in this week's game, likely creating a passing game script.
The leading projections forecast the Los Angeles Rams as the 6th-most pass-heavy offense among all teams this week with a 61.7% pass rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
Matthew Stafford has attempted 37.6 throws per game since the start of last season, checking in at the 84th percentile among quarterbacks.
The Cincinnati Bengals safeties rank as the 3rd-worst group of safeties in the league since the start of last season in pass coverage.

Favors Under

The projections expect the Rams to run the least total plays among all teams this week with 61.4 plays, accounting for their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
The Los Angeles Rams have played in the 2nd-most "low wind" (4-mph or less) games in the NFL since the start of last season, which ought to result in reduced pass volume, higher running volume, and reduced offense results when facing windier conditions this week.
The Los Angeles Rams O-line grades out as the 3rd-worst in the NFL since the start of last season in pass protection, which has a negative impact on all pass attack stats across the board.
Matthew Stafford's passing accuracy has diminished this season, with his Completion% shrinking from 65.3% to 61.6%.
Opposing offenses have thrown for the 8th-least yards in football (just 206.0 per game) versus the Cincinnati Bengals defense since the start of last season.

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