Matthew Stafford Passing Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 1

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NFL · Player Props

Matthew Stafford

QB · Los Angeles Rams

Passing Yards

Seattle Seahawks vs Los Angeles Rams · Week 1, 2023

Updated Sep 10, 2023 11:21 PM UTC

Analysis

Matthew Stafford Passing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 224.5 (+105/-136).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 231.5 @ -114 before it was bet down to 224.5 @ -136.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Rams are a 4.5-point underdog in this game, likely leading to a passing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Los Angeles Rams as the 7th-most pass-heavy team among all teams this week with a 62.3% pass rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects this game to see the 4th-highest volume of plays run on the slate this week at 130.0 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects Matthew Stafford to attempt 36.8 passes in this week's contest, on average: the 8th-most of all quarterbacks.
The Seattle Seahawks pass defense has shown poor efficiency since the start of last season, surrendering 7.98 yards-per-target: the 8th-most in the league.

Favors Under

The Los Angeles Rams have called the 6th-least plays in the NFL since the start of last season, averaging a measly 54.4 plays per game.
The Los Angeles Rams have played in the 2nd-most "low wind" (4-mph or less) games in football since the start of last season, which ought to result in reduced pass volume, increased running volume, and reduced pass game efficiency when facing windier conditions in this week's contest.
Opposing offenses have averaged 31.4 pass attempts per game versus the Seattle Seahawks defense since the start of last season: 9th-least in the league.
Matthew Stafford has been among the worst per-play passers in the league since the start of last season, averaging a lowly 6.57 yards-per-target while ranking in the lowly 13th percentile.
The Seattle Seahawks safeties profile as the 2nd-best safety corps in the league since the start of last season in covering pass-catchers.