Matthew Stafford Passing Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 1

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NFL · Player Props

Matthew Stafford

QB · Los Angeles Rams

Passing Yards

Los Angeles Rams vs Buffalo Bills · Week 1, 2022

Updated Sep 8, 2022 11:47 PM UTC

Analysis

Matthew Stafford Passing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 265.5 (-110/-110).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 271.5 @ -110 before it was bet down to 265.5 @ -110.

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects the Los Angeles Rams as the 2nd-most pass-centric offense on the slate this week with a 65.1% pass rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects the Rams to run the 4th-most offensive plays on the slate this week with 64.6 plays, accounting for their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
The forecast calls for 1-mph wind in this game. Low wind usually means increased pass volume, increased TD potential, and better passing effectiveness.
THE BLITZ projects Matthew Stafford to attempt 39.7 passes in this week's game, on average: the 4th-most of all QBs.
Opposing offenses have averaged 31.9 pass attempts per game vs. the Buffalo Bills defense since the start of last season: 9th-least in the league.

Favors Under

The Los Angeles Rams have played in the 2nd-most "low wind" (4-mph or less) games in the league since the start of last season, which should lead to lower pass volume, higher running volume, and reduced passing offense efficiency when facing windier conditions in this week's contest.
Opposing QBs have thrown for the least yards in the league (just 180.0 per game) vs. the Buffalo Bills defense since the start of last season.
Opposing teams have completed passes at the 2nd-lowest level in the league vs. the Buffalo Bills defense since the start of last season (63.8%).
The Buffalo Bills pass defense has exhibited strong efficiency since the start of last season, allowing 6.53 yards-per-target: the least in football.
The Buffalo Bills safeties rank as the best collection of safeties in the league since the start of last season in pass coverage.