Matthew Stafford Pass Attempts - Player Prop Bet Week 11

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Matthew Stafford

NFL · Player Props

Matthew Stafford

QB · Los Angeles Rams

Pass Attempts

New Orleans Saints vs Los Angeles Rams · Week 11, 2022

Updated Nov 21, 2022 1:01 AM UTC

Analysis

Matthew Stafford Pass Attempts Prop is currently Over/Under 35.5 (-105/-125).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 35.5 @ -110 before it was bet down to 35.5 @ -125.

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects the Los Angeles Rams as the 5th-most pass-oriented team among all teams this week with a 65.2% pass rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
This game will be played in a dome—meaning no wind, higher pass volume, higher touchdown potential, and increased passing efficiency.
THE BLITZ projects Matthew Stafford to attempt 38.1 passes in this week's contest, on average: the 7th-most of all QBs.
The Los Angeles Rams have gone no-huddle on 15.8% of their plays outside the two-minute warning since the start of last season (3rd-most in football). This speeds up the pace, resulting in more volume and stat-padding.

Favors Under

THE BLITZ projects the Rams to call the 6th-least offensive plays on the slate this week with 62.9 plays, accounting for their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
Opposing teams have averaged 33.8 pass attempts per game vs. the New Orleans Saints defense this year: 7th-least in the NFL.
The New Orleans Saints have stacked the box vs. opponents on just 13.5% of their plays since the start of last season, 9th-least in the league. Choosing not to keep an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves pass defense at the expense of run-stopping.
The Los Angeles Rams have elected to go for it on 4th down just 14.7% of the time since the start of last season (3rd-least in football), which usually means less offensive volume, less TD potential, and lower offensive metrics across the board.

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