Matthew Stafford Completions - Player Prop Bet Week 8

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Matthew Stafford

NFL · Player Props

Matthew Stafford

QB · Los Angeles Rams

Completions

Dallas Cowboys vs Los Angeles Rams · Week 8, 2023

Updated Oct 29, 2023 10:51 PM EST

Analysis

Matthew Stafford Completions Prop is currently Over/Under 22.5 (-125/-104).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 22.5 @ -118 before it was bet up to 22.5 @ -125.

Key Factors

Favors Over

At a -6.5-point disadvantage, the Rams are underdogs in this game, indicating more of a focus on throwing than their typical approach.
The predictive model expects the Rams to be the 3rd-most pass-focused team on the slate this week with a 64.3% pass rate, accounting for their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics.
The 6th-highest number of plays in the league have been run by the Los Angeles Rams this year (a colossal 61.7 per game on average).
The passing games of both teams (as it relates to both volume and effectiveness) figure to benefit from the calm "weather" conditions (read: zero wind) inside this dome, while rush volume may drop.
The predictive model expects Matthew Stafford to attempt 37.5 passes in this week's contest, on average: the 4th-most among all quarterbacks.

Favors Under

The projections expect the Rams to call the 9th-fewest offensive plays on the slate this week with 63.3 plays, accounting for their underlying play style and game dynamics.
Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 28.2 pass attempts per game versus the Cowboys defense this year: 2nd-fewest in the league.
The Los Angeles Rams O-line grades out as the 7th-worst in football this year in protecting the quarterback, which has a harmful influence on all passing attack metrics across the board.
Matthew Stafford's passing accuracy has tailed off this season, with his Adjusted Completion% decreasing from 65.3% to 58.6%.
This year, the tough Dallas Cowboys defense has allowed a mere 62.7% Adjusted Completion Rate to opposing teams: the 4th-best rate in the league.

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