Matthew Stafford Completions - Player Prop Bet Week 7

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Matthew Stafford

NFL · Player Props

Matthew Stafford

QB · Los Angeles Rams

Completions

Los Angeles Rams vs Pittsburgh Steelers · Week 7, 2023

Updated Oct 22, 2023 11:16 PM UTC

Analysis

Matthew Stafford Completions Prop is currently Over/Under 22.5 (-125/-105).

Key Factors

Favors Over

Accounting for their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics, the model projects the Los Angeles Rams to pass on 61.1% of their chances: the 5th-highest rate among all teams this week.
Opposing squads have played at the 10th-quickest pace in football (adjusted for context) against the Rams defense this year, averaging 27.01 seconds per play.
The weather report calls for 0-mph wind in this game. Low wind typically means increased pass volume, and reduced run volume, increased touchdown potential, and better passing effectiveness.
In this contest, Matthew Stafford is forecasted by the model to wind up with the 6th-most pass attempts out of all quarterbacks with 36.7.
The Pittsburgh cornerbacks rank as the 8th-worst unit in football this year in covering receivers.

Favors Under

With a 3-point advantage, the Rams are favored this week, suggesting more of a reliance on rushing than their normal approach.
As it relates to pocket protection (and the significance it has on all passing attack metrics), the offensive line of the Los Angeles Rams ranks as the 7th-worst in the NFL this year.
Matthew Stafford's 59.8% Adjusted Completion% this year signifies a a noteworthy decrease in his passing accuracy over last year's 65.3% mark.
This year, the tough Steelers defense has allowed a measly 62.2% Adjusted Completion Rate to opposing offenses: the 4th-lowest rate in football.

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