Matthew Stafford Completions - Player Prop Bet Week 5

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Matthew Stafford

NFL · Player Props

Matthew Stafford

QB · Los Angeles Rams

Completions

Los Angeles Rams vs Dallas Cowboys · Week 5, 2022

Updated Oct 10, 2022 1:55 AM UTC

Analysis

Matthew Stafford Completions Prop is currently Over/Under 23.5 (-114/-114).

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects the Los Angeles Rams to be the 5th-most pass-centric team among all teams this week with a 63.5% pass rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects this game to have the 5th-highest volume of plays run among all games this week at 131.9 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The weather forecast calls for 0-mph wind in this game. Low wind usually means increased pass volume, increased TD potential, and increased passing efficiency.
THE BLITZ projects Matthew Stafford to attempt 38.3 passes in this week's contest, on average: the 6th-most of all QBs.
Opposing QBs have averaged 41.0 pass attempts per game vs. the Dallas Cowboys defense this year: 4th-most in the league.

Favors Under

The Rams are a 5-point favorite in this week's game, likely leading to a rushing game script.
The Los Angeles Rams offensive line profiles as the worst in football this year in protecting the QB, which has a negative impact on all passing offense metrics across the board.
The Dallas Cowboys safeties project as the 6th-best group of safeties in the NFL this year in covering pass-catchers.
The Dallas Cowboys pass rush has gotten pressure on opposing QBs just 2.39 seconds after the snap (on average), grading out as the 5th-fastest in the league since the start of last season.
The Los Angeles Rams have utilized play action on a lowly 21.0% of their dropbacks since the start of last season (5th-least in the NFL), creating a more one-dimensional offense that hurts passing production.

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