Matthew Stafford Carries - Player Prop Bet Week 4

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Matthew Stafford

NFL · Player Props

Matthew Stafford

QB · Los Angeles Rams

Carries

Indianapolis Colts vs Los Angeles Rams · Week 4, 2023

Updated Oct 1, 2023 8:01 PM UTC

Analysis

Matthew Stafford Carries Prop is currently Over/Under 2.5 (+155/-185).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 2.5 @ +160 before it was bet up to 2.5 @ +155.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The leading projections forecast this game to see the 2nd-highest volume of plays run on the slate this week at 134.3 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
Matthew Stafford has been a more integral piece of his team's rushing attack this season (11.9% Carry Share in games he has been on the field) than he was last season (3.9%).
As it relates to the safeties' role in run defense, Indianapolis's group of safeties has been dreadful since the start of last season, projecting as the 3rd-worst in football. in football.

Favors Under

The leading projections forecast the Los Angeles Rams to be the 5th-least run-centric team among all teams this week with a 37.1% run rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
The Los Angeles Rams have called the 9th-fewest plays in football since the start of last season, totaling a measly 56.1 plays per game.
This game will be played in a dome—meaning no wind, higher pass volume, higher touchdown potential, and increased passing effectiveness.
The model projects Matthew Stafford to notch 2.4 rush attempts this week, on average: the 5th-fewest of all quarterbacks.

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