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Matt Ryan

Matt Ryan TD Passes
Player Prop Week 13

Dallas Cowboys vs Indianapolis Colts

Matt Ryan TD Passes Prop is currently Over/Under 1.5 (+186/-245).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 1.5 @ -250 before it was bet down to 1.5 @ -245.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

The Colts are a massive 10.5-point underdog in this game, likely leading to an extreme passing game script.

THE BLITZ projects the Indianapolis Colts as the 6th-most pass-oriented team among all teams this week with a 65.3% pass rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.

THE BLITZ projects this game to see the highest volume of plays run among all games this week at 140.2 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.

The Indianapolis Colts have called the 8th-most plays in football this year, averaging a whopping 60.2 plays per game.

This game will be played in a dome—meaning zero wind, higher pass volume, higher touchdown potential, and better passing effectiveness.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

The Indianapolis Colts O-line ranks as the 6th-worst in the league this year in protecting the QB, which has a harmful impact on all pass attack statistics across the board.

The Dallas Cowboys defense has allowed the 7th-least touchdowns through the air in the NFL: 1.09 per game this year.

The Dallas Cowboys linebackers rank as the 4th-best collection of LBs in the league this year in pass coverage.

The Dallas Cowboys pass rush has gotten pressure on opposing QBs a measly 2.39 seconds after the snap (on average), grading out as the 5th-best in the NFL since the start of last season.

The Indianapolis Colts have gone no-huddle on a lowly 2.7% of their play-calls outside the two-minute warning since the start of last season (5th-least in football). This slows the pace, leading to less volume and stat accumulation.

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