Matt Ryan TD Passes - Player Prop Bet Week 1

NFL · Player Props

Matt Ryan

QB · Indianapolis Colts

TD Passes

Houston Texans vs Indianapolis Colts · Week 1, 2022

Updated Sep 11, 2022 11:34 PM EST

Analysis

Matt Ryan TD Passes Prop is currently Over/Under 1.5 (+102/-130).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 1.5 @ +102 before it was bet up to 1.5 @ +102.

Key Factors

Favors Over

This game will be played in a dome—meaning zero wind, higher pass volume, higher touchdown potential, and better passing efficiency.
The Houston Texans safeties grade out as the worst unit in football since the start of last season in pass coverage.
The Indianapolis Colts offensive line has given their quarterback 2.63 seconds before the pass (9th-best in the NFL since the start of last season), which has a strong effect on all pass attack metrics across the board.
The Indianapolis Colts have utilized play action on 33.6% of their dropbacks since the start of last season (5th-most in the league), making the defense think run and leading to much higher passing efficiency.
The Indianapolis Colts have risked going for it on 4th down 23.6% of the time since the start of last season (7th-most in the league), which generally means more offensive volume, more TD potential, and higher offensive statistics across the board.

Favors Under

The Colts are a big 7-point favorite in this week's contest, likely leading to an extreme rushing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Indianapolis Colts as the 6th-least pass-centric team in the league near the end zone (context-neutralized) at the present time with a 55.4% red zone pass rate.
THE BLITZ projects this game to see the lowest volume of plays run out of all the games this week at 121.8 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 31.6 pass attempts per game vs. the Houston Texans defense since the start of last season: 7th-least in the league.
The Indianapolis Colts have gone no-huddle on just 2.7% of their play-calls outside the two-minute warning since the start of last season (5th-least in the NFL). This deadens the pace, leading to less volume and stat production.