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Matt Ryan

Matt Ryan Rushing Yards
Player Prop Week 3

Indianapolis Colts vs Kansas City Chiefs

Matt Ryan Rushing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 2.5 (-115/-110).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 2.5 @ -105 before it was bet down to 2.5 @ -110.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

THE BLITZ projects the Indianapolis Colts as the 9th-most run-heavy team in football (adjusted for context) right now with a 40.2% run rate.

THE BLITZ projects this game to have the largest volume of plays run on the slate this week at 128.8 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.

The weather report calls for 15-mph wind in this game. High wind generally means lower pass volume (and higher run volume) and worse passing effectiveness.

The Indianapolis Colts offensive line grades out as the 8th-best in football since the start of last season at blocking for the run game.

The Kansas City Chiefs defense owns the 8th-worst efficiency against opposing running games since the start of last season, allowing 4.74 yards-per-carry.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

The Colts are a 4.5-point underdog this week, likely leading to a passing game script.

THE BLITZ projects Matt Ryan to accumulate 2.3 rush attempts in this week's contest, on average: the least of all QBs.

Matt Ryan has picked up a mere 5.0 yards per game on the ground since the start of last season, one of the lowest marks in football among QBs (16th percentile).

Matt Ryan's ground efficiency (2.65 yards per carry) has been some of the worst in the NFL since the start of last season (6th percentile among QBs).

Matt Ryan has been among the worst quarterbacks in football at grinding out extra ground yardage, averaging a lowly 1.14 yards-after-contact since the start of last season while ranking in the 9th percentile.

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