Matt Ryan Rushing Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 2

NFL · Player Props

Matt Ryan

QB · Indianapolis Colts

Rushing Yards

Jacksonville Jaguars vs Indianapolis Colts · Week 2, 2022

Updated Sep 18, 2022 7:30 PM EST

Analysis

Matt Ryan Rushing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 5.5 (+100/-133).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 4.5 @ -107 before it was bet up to 5.5 @ +100.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Colts are a 3-point favorite in this game, likely leading to a rushing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Indianapolis Colts to be the 8th-most run-oriented offense among all teams this week with a 44.4% run rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects the Colts to call the 6th-most plays on offense among all teams this week with 65.3 plays, accounting for their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
The Indianapolis Colts have played in the 9th-most "low wind" (4-mph or less) games in the NFL since the start of last season, which should result in lower pass volume, higher running volume, and reduced passing offense performance when facing windier conditions in this week's contest.
THE BLITZ projects Matt Ryan to be a more integral piece of his team's run game this week (9.6% projected Carry Share) than he has been since the start of last season (4.6% in games he has played).

Favors Under

Matt Ryan has grinded out just 5.0 yards per game on the ground since the start of last season, one of the lowest marks in the league among quarterbacks (17th percentile).
Matt Ryan's rushing effectiveness (2.66 yards per carry) has been some of the worst in football since the start of last season (7th percentile among quarterbacks).
Matt Ryan has been among the worst quarterbacks in the league at generating extra running yardage, averaging a lowly 1.14 yards-after-contact since the start of last season while ranking in the 12th percentile.
The Jacksonville Jaguars have stacked the box against opponents on 22.5% of their plays since the start of last season, 2nd-most in the NFL. Bringing an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the expense of better passing efficiency.
The Indianapolis Colts have gone no-huddle on a measly 2.7% of their plays outside the two-minute warning since the start of last season (5th-least in football). This slows down the pace, leading to less volume and stat production.