Matt Ryan Passing Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 1

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Matt Ryan

NFL · Player Props

Matt Ryan

QB · Indianapolis Colts

Passing Yards

Houston Texans vs Indianapolis Colts · Week 1, 2022

Updated Sep 11, 2022 11:34 PM EST

Analysis

Matt Ryan Passing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 235.5 (-110/-110).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 237.5 @ -114 before it was bet down to 235.5 @ -110.

Key Factors

Favors Over

This game will be played in a dome—meaning zero wind, higher pass volume, higher touchdown potential, and better passing efficiency.
Opposing teams have thrown for the 9th-most yards in the league (244.0 per game) vs. the Houston Texans defense since the start of last season.
The Houston Texans pass defense has exhibited weak efficiency since the start of last season, yielding 8.63 yards-per-target: the 3rd-most in football.
The Houston Texans safeties grade out as the worst unit in football since the start of last season in pass coverage.
The Indianapolis Colts offensive line has given their quarterback 2.63 seconds before the pass (9th-best in the NFL since the start of last season), which has a strong effect on all pass attack metrics across the board.

Favors Under

The Colts are a big 7-point favorite in this week's contest, likely leading to an extreme rushing game script.
The Colts rank as the 7th-least pass-heavy team in the NFL (adjusted for context) since the start of last season with a 60.0% pass rate.
THE BLITZ projects this game to see the lowest volume of plays run out of all the games this week at 121.8 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 31.6 pass attempts per game vs. the Houston Texans defense since the start of last season: 7th-least in the league.
The Houston Texans defense has performed very well when opposing pass-catchers have gotten into space, allowing an average of 4.63 yards-after-the-catch since the start of last season: the 8th-least in the NFL.

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