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Matt Ryan

Matt Ryan Interceptions
Player Prop Week 1

Houston Texans vs Indianapolis Colts

Matt Ryan Interceptions Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+160/-200).

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

This game will be played in a dome—meaning zero wind, higher pass volume, higher touchdown potential, and better passing efficiency.

The Houston Texans safeties grade out as the worst unit in football since the start of last season in pass coverage.

The Indianapolis Colts offensive line has given their quarterback 2.63 seconds before the pass (9th-best in the NFL since the start of last season), which has a strong effect on all pass attack metrics across the board.

The Indianapolis Colts have utilized play action on 33.6% of their dropbacks since the start of last season (5th-most in the league), making the defense think run and leading to much higher passing efficiency.

The Indianapolis Colts have risked going for it on 4th down 23.6% of the time since the start of last season (7th-most in the league), which generally means more offensive volume, more TD potential, and higher offensive statistics across the board.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

The Colts are a big 7-point favorite in this week's contest, likely leading to an extreme rushing game script.

The Colts rank as the 7th-least pass-heavy team in the NFL (adjusted for context) since the start of last season with a 60.0% pass rate.

THE BLITZ projects this game to see the lowest volume of plays run out of all the games this week at 121.8 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.

Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 31.6 pass attempts per game vs. the Houston Texans defense since the start of last season: 7th-least in the league.

The Houston Texans have intercepted 1.00 throws per game since the start of last season, grading out as the 5th-best defense in the NFL by this standard.

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