Matt Ryan Completions - Player Prop Bet Week 3

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Matt Ryan

NFL · Player Props

Matt Ryan

QB · Indianapolis Colts

Completions

Indianapolis Colts vs Kansas City Chiefs · Week 3, 2022

Updated Sep 25, 2022 11:30 PM UTC

Analysis

Matt Ryan Completions Prop is currently Over/Under 21.5 (-135/+105).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 21.5 @ -125 before it was bet up to 21.5 @ -135.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Colts are a 4.5-point underdog this week, likely leading to a passing game script.
THE BLITZ projects this game to have the largest volume of plays run on the slate this week at 128.8 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects Matt Ryan to attempt 34.9 passes in this week's game, on average: the 10th-most of all QBs.
Opposing teams have averaged 37.2 pass attempts per game versus the Kansas City Chiefs defense since the start of last season: 3rd-most in football.
Opposing quarterbacks have completed passes at the 5th-highest level in the NFL versus the Kansas City Chiefs defense since the start of last season (72.7%).

Favors Under

THE BLITZ projects the Indianapolis Colts to be the 9th-least pass-centric offense in football (context-neutralized) at the moment with a 59.8% pass rate.
The weather report calls for 15-mph wind in this game. High wind generally means lower pass volume (and higher run volume) and worse passing effectiveness.
Matt Ryan's passing accuracy has declined this year, with his Completion% falling off from 66.8% to 59.0%.
The Kansas City Chiefs cornerbacks grade out as the 9th-best unit in the league since the start of last season in pass coverage.
The Kansas City Chiefs defensive front has gotten pressure on opposing quarterbacks just 2.31 seconds after the snap (on average), grading out as the best in the league since the start of last season.

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