Matt Breida Rushing Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 8

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Matt Breida

NFL · Player Props

Matt Breida

RB · New York Giants

Rushing Yards

New York Giants vs New York Jets · Week 8, 2023

Updated Oct 30, 2023 12:06 AM UTC

Analysis

Matt Breida Rushing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 11.5 (-110/-110).

Key Factors

Favors Over

The model projects the Giants as the 4th-most run-oriented team on the slate this week with a 47.1% run rate, accounting for their underlying traits and matchup dynamics.
The 9th-most plays in the league have been called by the Giants this year (a monstrous 61.4 per game on average).
Matt Breida has been a more integral piece of his offense's running game this season (20.3% Carry Share in games he has played) than he was last season (9.9%).
This year, the weak Jets run defense has been gouged for a whopping 134.0 adjusted rushing yards per game to opposing teams: the 9th-most in the NFL.

Favors Under

The New York Giants will be rolling with backup QB Tyrod Taylor in this contest, which generally means fewer pass attempts and more rushes.
At a -3-point disadvantage, the Giants are underdogs in this week's contest, implying more of a reliance on passing than their normal approach.
Based on the game dynamics and traits of each team, our trusted projections expect this game (with an average of 26.80 seconds per play) will have the 11th-slowest pace out of all the games this week.
The New York O-line profiles as the 8th-worst in the league last year at executing run-blocking assingments.
Matt Breida's running efficiency has worsened this year, totaling a measly 2.45 adjusted yards-per-carry compared to a 3.78 rate last year.

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