Matt Breida Rushing Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 15

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Matt Breida

NFL · Player Props

Matt Breida

RB · New York Giants

Rushing Yards

New Orleans Saints vs New York Giants · Week 15, 2023

Updated Dec 17, 2023 8:26 PM UTC

Analysis

Matt Breida Rushing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 6.5 (-109/-119).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 6.5 @ -111 before it was bet down to 6.5 @ -119.

Key Factors

Favors Over

With a 41.4% rate of running the ball (adjusted for context) this year, the 7th-most run-centric offense in football has been the Giants.
Given their underlying strategic approach and game dynamics, the Giants are expected by our trusted projection set to call 66.7 total plays in this contest: the 4th-highest number on the slate this week.
This year, the weak New Orleans Saints run defense has yielded a staggering 130.0 adjusted yards per game on the ground to opposing teams: the 6th-worst in football.

Favors Under

At a -6.5-point disadvantage, the Giants are underdogs in this week's contest, implying more of a focus on passing than their normal game plan.
This game will be played in a dome—meaning zero wind, increased pass volume, increased touchdown potential, and increased passing efficiency.
When talking about run-blocking (and the importance it has on all ground game statistics), the O-line of the New York Giants grades out as the 8th-worst in the league last year.
Matt Breida's running effectiveness has declined this season, totaling just 2.57 adjusted yards-per-carry vs a 3.75 figure last season.
The New Orleans Saints linebackers profile as the 2nd-best unit in the league this year when it comes to defending the run.

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