Matt Breida Rushing Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 2

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NFL · Player Props

Matt Breida

RB · New York Giants

Rushing Yards

New York Giants vs Carolina Panthers · Week 2, 2022

Updated Sep 18, 2022 4:55 PM EST

Analysis

Matt Breida Rushing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 13.5 (-117/-117).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 18.5 @ -117 before it was bet down to 13.5 @ -117.

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects the New York Giants to be the 10th-most run-centric team among all teams this week with a 43.2% run rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects this game to have the 2nd-largest volume of plays run out of all the games this week at 131.4 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
Matt Breida's rushing efficiency (4.91 yards per carry) has been some of the best in football since the start of last season (83rd percentile among running backs).
The Carolina Panthers safeties rank as the 29th-worst safety corps in the NFL since the start of last season when it comes to defending the run.
The New York Giants have gone no-huddle on 30.1% of their play-calls outside the two-minute warning since the start of last season (2nd-most in football). This speeds up the pace, leading to more volume and stat accumulation.

Favors Under

The New York Giants have run the 8th-least plays in football since the start of last season, totaling just 60.8 plays per game.
The New York Giants O-line profiles as the 3rd-worst in the NFL since the start of last season at blocking for the run game.
The Carolina Panthers have stacked the box vs. opponents on 26.1% of their plays since the start of last season, most in the league. Keeping an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the expense of better passing efficiency.
The New York Giants have utilized motion in their offense on 26.6% of their plays since the start of last season (2nd-least in the league), which usually makes an offense more predictable and less effective.