Matt Breida Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 4

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NFL · Player Props

Matt Breida

RB · New York Giants

Receiving Yards

New York Giants vs Seattle Seahawks · Week 4, 2023

Updated Oct 2, 2023 11:11 PM UTC

Analysis

Matt Breida Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 14.5 (-130/+100).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 13.5 @ -120 before it was bet up to 14.5 @ -130.

Key Factors

Favors Over

Still weather conditions (like the 2-mph wind being called for in this game) typically prompt better passing effectiveness, higher touchdown potential, higher pass volume, and reduced ground volume.
Matt Breida has put up a colossal 2.0 air yards per game since the start of last season: 76th percentile among RBs. (That might not seem too impressive, but most RBs wind up with negative air yards because they are often targeted behind the line of scrimmage).
The Seattle Seahawks defense has allowed the 3rd-most receiving yards per game in the NFL (40.0) to RBs since the start of last season.
The Seahawks pass defense has exhibited poor efficiency versus running backs since the start of last season, giving up 6.62 yards-per-target to the position: the 3rd-most in the NFL.
The Seahawks safeties profile as the worst safety corps in the NFL since the start of last season in covering pass-catchers.

Favors Under

Accounting for their underlying traits and matchup dynamics, the predictive model expects the New York Giants to pass on 56.3% of their plays: the lowest frequency on the slate this week.
The projections expect this game to have the lowest volume of plays run among all games this week at 127.6 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The Giants offensive line ranks as the worst in football since the start of last season in pass protection, which has a harmful effect on all passing attack metrics across the board.
Matt Breida has been among the weakest running backs in the pass game since the start of last season, averaging a measly 6.0 yards per game while checking in at the 25th percentile among running backs.