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Matt Breida

Matt Breida Receiving Yards
Player Prop Week 12

Dallas Cowboys vs New York Giants

Matt Breida Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 5.5 (+102/-135).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 5.5 @ -112 before it was bet down to 5.5 @ -135.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

The Giants are a 3-point favorite in this week's contest, likely creating a rushing game script.

THE BLITZ projects this game to have the largest volume of plays run on the slate this week at 135.5 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.

The New York Giants have run the 6th-most plays in the NFL this year, totaling a colossal 61.6 plays per game.

This game will be played in a dome—meaning zero wind, increased pass volume, increased TD potential, and better passing efficiency.

Matt Breida has notched a colossal 4.0 air yards per game this year: 87th percentile among running backs. (That may not sound like a lot, but most RBs have negative air yards because they are targeted behind the line of scrimmage).

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

THE BLITZ projects the New York Giants as the 6th-least pass-oriented team in the league (adjusted for context) right now with a 57.2% pass rate.

Matt Breida has been on the field for 18.4% of his team's snaps this year, ranking him in the 23rd percentile among running backs.

The New York Giants offensive line grades out as the 10th-worst in football this year in protecting the QB, which has a negative effect on all passing attack metrics across the board.

Matt Breida has posted quite a few less receiving yards per game (7.0) this season than he did last season (12.0).

The Dallas Cowboys defense has surrendered the 2nd-least receiving yards per game in football (just 24.0) to running backs this year.

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