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Marvin Mims Jr. Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 2.5 (-172/+134).
The money has been on the Under as it opened 3.5 @ -175 before it was bet down to 2.5 @ +134.
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FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
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The Broncos O-line profiles as the best in football last year in protecting the QB, which has a positive impact on all passing offense metrics across the board.With an outstanding 78.0% Adjusted Catch Rate (93rd percentile) last year, Marvin Mims ranks as one of the best possession receivers in football among WRs.Last year, the feeble Tennessee Titans pass defense has surrendered a whopping 67.5% Adjusted Completion Rate versus opposing wide receivers: the 9th-biggest rate in the NFL.When it comes to cornerbacks in covering pass-catchers, Tennessee's collection of CBs has been awful last year, profiling as the 6th-worst in the league.
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FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
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This game's spread suggests an extreme running game script for the Broncos, who are a massive favorite by 8 points.Given their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics, the model projects the Broncos to pass on 53.4% of their plays: the 2nd-lowest rate on the slate this week.The projections expect this game to see the 3rd-smallest number of plays run on the slate this week at 125.6 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.Opposing offenses teams have been wary to pass too much against the Tennessee Titans, totaling the fewest attempts in football (a measly 26.9 per game) last year.With a sizeable 31.7% Route Participation% (22nd percentile) last year, Marvin Mims rates among the wide receivers with the biggest workloads in football.
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