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Marvin Mims Jr.

Marvin Mims Jr. Receptions
Player Prop Week 17

Cincinnati Bengals vs Denver Broncos

Marvin Mims Jr. Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 2.5 (-135/+105).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 2.5 @ -105 before it was bet up to 2.5 @ -135.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

At a -3.5-point disadvantage, the Broncos are underdogs in this game, indicating more of an emphasis on throwing than their usual approach.

The model projects the Broncos to be the 10th-most pass-focused team among all teams this week with a 59.1% pass rate, given their underlying play style and matchup dynamics.

With regard to a defense's impact on tempo, at 27.33 seconds per snap, the projections expect the Broncos to be the 4th-quickest in football (adjusted for context) right now.

The forecast calls for 3-mph wind in this game. Low wind typically means higher pass volume, and lower rush volume, higher TD potential, and increased passing effectiveness.

The Cincinnati Bengals defense has been a bit of pass funnel this year, leading opposing QBs to attempt the 9th-most passes in football (35.7 per game) this year.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

Marvin Mims has run fewer routes this season (27.9% Route Participation% in games he has played) than he did last season (42.6%).

The Bengals pass defense has given up the 8th-lowest Adjusted Completion% in football (62.5%) vs. WRs this year (62.5%).

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