Marvin Mims Jr. Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 13

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Marvin Mims Jr.

NFL · Player Props

Marvin Mims Jr.

WR · Denver Broncos

Receptions

Houston Texans vs Denver Broncos · Week 13, 2023

Updated Dec 4, 2023 1:06 AM UTC

Analysis

Marvin Mims Jr. Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 2.5 (+122/-165).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 2.5 @ -160 before it was bet down to 2.5 @ -165.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Broncos are a 3-point underdog in this week's contest, which points towards a passing game script.
This game will be played in a dome—which means zero wind, higher pass volume, higher TD potential, and increased passing efficiency.
When it comes to pass-blocking (and the strong effect it has on all pass game stats), the offensive line of the Denver Broncos profiles as the 7th-best in football this year.

Favors Under

The leading projections forecast the Broncos offense to skew 2.1% more towards rushing than it did last season (context-neutralized) with head coach Sean Payton now calling the plays.
At the present time, the 6th-least pass-centric offense in the NFL (58.3% adjusted for context) according to the predictive model is the Denver Broncos.
The model projects the Broncos to run the 6th-fewest total plays among all teams this week with 63.9 plays, accounting for their underlying traits and game dynamics.
The Denver Broncos have run the 2nd-fewest plays in football this year, totaling a lowly 53.2 plays per game.
With a puny 1.5 adjusted catches per game (25th percentile) this year, Marvin Mims has been as one of the weakest WRs in the league in the NFL.

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