Marvin Mims Jr. Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 1

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Marvin Mims Jr.

NFL · Player Props

Marvin Mims Jr.

WR · Denver Broncos

Receptions

Denver Broncos vs Las Vegas Raiders · Week 1, 2023

Updated Sep 10, 2023 11:21 PM UTC

Analysis

Marvin Mims Jr. Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 3.5 (-121/-108).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 3.5 @ -118 before it was bet up to 3.5 @ -121.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Las Vegas Raiders pass defense has given up the 5th-highest Completion% in the league (69.6%) vs. wideouts since the start of last season (69.6%).
The Las Vegas Raiders linebackers project as the 2nd-worst group of LBs in football since the start of last season in pass coverage.

Favors Under

The Denver Broncos will have a new play-caller this year in head coach Sean Payton, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to tilt 1.4% more towards rushing than it did last year (in a neutral context).
The Broncos are a 3-point favorite in this game, likely creating a rushing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Denver Broncos to be the 5th-least pass-centric offense on the slate this week with a 54.2% pass rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects this game to see the 4th-least plays run among all games this week at 125.8 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.

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