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Marvin Mims Jr.

Marvin Mims Jr. Receiving Yards
Player Prop Week 17

Cincinnati Bengals vs Denver Broncos

Marvin Mims Jr. Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 30.5 (-123/-105).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 23.5 @ -114 before it was bet up to 30.5 @ -123.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

At a -3.5-point disadvantage, the Broncos are underdogs in this game, indicating more of an emphasis on throwing than their usual approach.

The model projects the Broncos to be the 10th-most pass-focused team among all teams this week with a 59.1% pass rate, given their underlying play style and matchup dynamics.

With regard to a defense's impact on tempo, at 27.33 seconds per snap, the projections expect the Broncos to be the 4th-quickest in football (adjusted for context) right now.

The forecast calls for 3-mph wind in this game. Low wind typically means higher pass volume, and lower rush volume, higher TD potential, and increased passing effectiveness.

The Cincinnati Bengals defense has been a bit of pass funnel this year, leading opposing QBs to attempt the 9th-most passes in football (35.7 per game) this year.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

Marvin Mims has run fewer routes this season (27.9% Route Participation% in games he has played) than he did last season (42.6%).

Marvin Mims has put up quite a few less air yards this year (20.0 per game) than he did last year (32.0 per game).

Marvin Mims grades out as one of the weakest WRs in the NFL this year, averaging a measly 19.0 adjusted yards per game while grading out in the 22nd percentile when it comes to WRs.

Marvin Mims's 7.3 adjusted yards per target this season signifies an impressive reduction in his receiving proficiency over last season's 8.8 mark.

The Bengals pass defense has given up the 8th-lowest Adjusted Completion% in football (62.5%) vs. WRs this year (62.5%).

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