My Account Log Out

reorder

Marvin Mims Jr.

Marvin Mims Jr. Receiving Yards
Player Prop Week 16

Los Angeles Chargers vs Denver Broncos

Marvin Mims Jr. Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 24.5 (-122/-106).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 26.5 @ -115 before it was bet down to 24.5 @ -106.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

With a 63.4% rate of throwing the ball (adjusted for context) this year, the 7th-most pass-focused offense in the NFL has been the Broncos.

The model projects the Denver Broncos to run the 8th-most total plays on the slate this week with 65.9 plays, given their underlying traits and game dynamics.

Calm weather conditions (like the 0-mph wind being projected in this game) usually prompt increased passing effectiveness, increased touchdown potential, increased air volume, and reduced ground volume.

The Denver offensive line profiles as the best in the NFL this year in protecting the QB, which has a positive influence on all air attack stats across the board.

Marvin Mims's 12.61 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) this year signifies a meaningful gain in his efficiency in picking up extra yardage over last year's 6.6% figure.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

Marvin Mims has been used less as a potential target this year (26.5% Route Participation Rate in games he has been on the field) than he did last year (42.6%).

Marvin Mims has notched significantly fewer air yards this year (20.0 per game) than he did last year (32.0 per game).

Marvin Mims comes in as one of the weakest pass-catching wide receivers this year, averaging a lowly 17.0 adjusted yards per game while grading out in the 22nd percentile among WRs.

Marvin Mims's pass-game effectiveness has worsened this year, notching just 6.81 adjusted yards-per-target compared to a 8.80 figure last year.

The Chargers pass defense has performed very well when opposing WRs have gotten into space, allowing an average of 3.88 yards-after-the-catch this year: the 8th-fewest in football.

More Marvin Mims Jr. Player Props

© 2022 EV Analytics | Data by WriteNow™