Marvin Mims Jr. Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 13

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Marvin Mims Jr.

NFL · Player Props

Marvin Mims Jr.

WR · Denver Broncos

Receiving Yards

Houston Texans vs Denver Broncos · Week 13, 2023

Updated Dec 4, 2023 1:06 AM UTC

Analysis

Marvin Mims Jr. Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 21.5 (-110/-110).

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Broncos are a 3-point underdog in this week's contest, which points towards a passing game script.
This game will be played in a dome—which means zero wind, higher pass volume, higher TD potential, and increased passing efficiency.
When it comes to pass-blocking (and the strong effect it has on all pass game stats), the offensive line of the Denver Broncos profiles as the 7th-best in football this year.
With an excellent 9.9 adjusted yards per target (81st percentile) this year, Marvin Mims stands among the top WRs in the NFL in the league.
Marvin Mims grades out as one of the best wide receivers in the NFL at picking up extra yardage, averaging an outstanding 6.20 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) this year while ranking in the 84th percentile.

Favors Under

The leading projections forecast the Broncos offense to skew 2.1% more towards rushing than it did last season (context-neutralized) with head coach Sean Payton now calling the plays.
At the present time, the 6th-least pass-centric offense in the NFL (58.3% adjusted for context) according to the predictive model is the Denver Broncos.
The model projects the Broncos to run the 6th-fewest total plays among all teams this week with 63.9 plays, accounting for their underlying traits and game dynamics.
The Denver Broncos have run the 2nd-fewest plays in football this year, totaling a lowly 53.2 plays per game.
The Texans cornerbacks rank as the 8th-best CB corps in football this year in defending pass-catchers.

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