Marvin Mims Jr. Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 10

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NFL · Player Props

Marvin Mims Jr.

WR · Denver Broncos

Receiving Yards

Buffalo Bills vs Denver Broncos · Week 10, 2023

Updated Nov 14, 2023 12:16 AM UTC

Analysis

Marvin Mims Jr. Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 20.5 (-137/+100).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 14.5 @ -119 before it was bet up to 20.5 @ -137.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Broncos are a huge 7.5-point underdog this week, likely creating an extreme passing game script.
With a stellar 77.6% Adjusted Completion Rate (87th percentile) this year, Marvin Mims rates among the most sure-handed receivers in the league among wideouts.
Marvin Mims rates as one of the most efficient receivers in the NFL, averaging an exceptional 12.40 adjusted yards-per-target this year while grading out in the 97th percentile when it comes to wide receivers.
With a remarkable 7.18 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) (89th percentile) this year, Marvin Mims places as one of the best wide receivers in the league in the NFL in space.
The Buffalo Bills pass defense has surrendered the highest Adjusted Completion% in the NFL (76%) to wideouts this year (76.0%).

Favors Under

The projections expect the Denver Broncos offensive scheme to skew 1.5% more towards the rushing attack than it did last season (adjusted for context) with head coach Sean Payton now calling the plays.
Given their underlying traits and matchup dynamics, our trusted projections expect the Broncos to pass on 57.3% of their downs: the lowest clip among all teams this week.
Accounting for their underlying strategic approach and game dynamics, the Denver Broncos are predicted by our trusted projection set to call only 60.8 plays on offense in this contest: the fewest among all teams this week.
The lowest number of plays in football have been called by the Denver Broncos this year (only 52.2 per game on average).
Opposing QBs teams have been reluctant to test the pass defense of the Bills, averaging the fewest attempts in the league (a measly 34.6 per game) this year.