Marvin Mims Jr. Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 1

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Marvin Mims Jr.

NFL · Player Props

Marvin Mims Jr.

WR · Denver Broncos

Receiving Yards

Denver Broncos vs Las Vegas Raiders · Week 1, 2023

Updated Sep 10, 2023 11:21 PM UTC

Analysis

Marvin Mims Jr. Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 42.5 (-110/-110).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 40.5 @ -110 before it was bet up to 42.5 @ -110.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Las Vegas Raiders defense has surrendered the 5th-most receiving yards per game in football (158.0) vs. wideouts since the start of last season.
The Las Vegas Raiders linebackers project as the 2nd-worst group of LBs in football since the start of last season in pass coverage.

Favors Under

The Denver Broncos will have a new play-caller this year in head coach Sean Payton, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to tilt 1.4% more towards rushing than it did last year (in a neutral context).
The Broncos are a 3-point favorite in this game, likely creating a rushing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Denver Broncos to be the 5th-least pass-centric offense on the slate this week with a 54.2% pass rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects this game to see the 4th-least plays run among all games this week at 125.8 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The Las Vegas Raiders pass defense has been quite strong when opposing wide receivers have gotten into space, giving up an average of 3.41 yards-after-the-catch since the start of last season: the 5th-least in football.

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