Marvin Jones Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 9

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NFL · Player Props

Marvin Jones

WR · Jacksonville Jaguars

Receptions

Jacksonville Jaguars vs Las Vegas Raiders · Week 9, 2022

Updated Nov 6, 2022 5:06 PM UTC

Analysis

Marvin Jones Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 3.5 (+150/-180).

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Jacksonville Jaguars will have a new play-caller this season in head coach Doug Pederson, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to skew 2.2% more towards passing than it did last season (context-neutralized).
THE BLITZ projects the Jacksonville Jaguars to be the 4th-fastest paced defense in the league (adjusted for context) at the present time, leading opposing offenses to average 27.41 seconds per play.
The Jacksonville Jaguars O-line grades out as the 4th-best in the league this year in pass protection, which has a strong effect on all passing attack metrics across the board.
The Las Vegas Raiders pass defense has allowed the 2nd-highest Completion% in football (71.9%) vs. wide receivers this year (71.9%).
The Las Vegas Raiders linebackers rank as the 4th-worst unit in football this year in covering receivers.

Favors Under

Marvin Jones's 46.6 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—a volume statistic that measures high-value offensive involvement) has been notably worse this year than it was last year at 53.5.
Marvin Jones's play as a receiver has worsened this season, averaging a measly 3.2 yards per game vs 4.3 last season.
Marvin Jones's sure-handedness have tailed off this year, with his Completion% shrinking from 63.4% to 53.8%.
The Jacksonville Jaguars have faced a stacked the box on a measly 11.1% of their plays since the start of last season, 3rd-least in the league. Keeping an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the expense of better passing efficiency.
The Jacksonville Jaguars have utilized motion in their offense on 33.0% of their plays since the start of last season (9th-least in the league), which usually makes an offense more predictable and less effective.