Marvin Jones Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 7

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Marvin Jones

NFL · Player Props

Marvin Jones

WR · Jacksonville Jaguars

Receptions

Jacksonville Jaguars vs New York Giants · Week 7, 2022

Updated Oct 23, 2022 4:56 PM UTC

Analysis

Marvin Jones Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 2.5 (-160/+116).

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Jacksonville Jaguars will have a new play-caller this year in head coach Doug Pederson, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to tilt 2.1% more towards passing than it did last year (in a neutral context).
THE BLITZ projects the Jacksonville Jaguars to be the 4th-quickest paced defense in the NFL (context-neutralized) right now, leading opposing offenses to average 27.29 seconds per snap.
Marvin Jones has run a route on 88.2% of his offense's passing plays this year, ranking him in the 77th percentile among WRs.
The Jacksonville Jaguars O-line grades out as the 3rd-best in football this year in pass protection, which has a positive impact on all air attack stats across the board.
The New York Giants linebackers grade out as the 5th-worst unit in football this year in covering receivers.

Favors Under

The weather report calls for 14-mph wind in this game. High wind generally means lower pass volume (and increased run volume) and worse passing effectiveness.
Opposing teams have averaged 32.2 pass attempts per game versus the New York Giants defense this year: 5th-least in football.
Marvin Jones's sure-handedness have declined this year, with his Completion% falling off from 63.4% to 58.9%.
The New York Giants pass defense has allowed the 6th-lowest Completion% in football (60.6%) vs. wide receivers this year (60.6%).
The Jacksonville Jaguars have faced a stacked the box on just 11.1% of their plays since the start of last season, 3rd-least in the NFL. Positioning an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the cost of better passing efficiency.

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