Marvin Jones Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 5

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NFL · Player Props

Marvin Jones

WR · Jacksonville Jaguars

Receptions

Jacksonville Jaguars vs Houston Texans · Week 5, 2022

Updated Oct 9, 2022 11:15 PM UTC

Analysis

Marvin Jones Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 3.5 (+130/-160).

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Jacksonville Jaguars boast a new play-caller this season in head coach Doug Pederson, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to lean 2.3% more towards passing than it did last season (context-neutralized).
THE BLITZ projects the Jaguars to call the 6th-most plays on offense among all teams this week with 66.4 plays, accounting for their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
The Jacksonville Jaguars O-line profiles as the 8th-best in the NFL this year in protecting the passer, which has a positive effect on all pass game stats across the board.
The Houston Texans safeties grade out as the 5th-worst collection of safeties in the NFL this year in regard to rushing the passer.
The Jacksonville Jaguars O-line has allowed their quarterback 2.56 seconds before getting pressured (5th-best in football since the start of last season), which has a positive effect on all pass attack statistics across the board.

Favors Under

The Jaguars are a huge 7-point favorite in this game, likely creating an extreme rushing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Jacksonville Jaguars to be the 11th-least pass-oriented team on the slate this week with a 56.6% pass rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
The weatherman calls for 12-mph wind in this game. High wind typically means reduced pass volume (and higher run volume) and decreased passing effectiveness.
Marvin Jones's 43.2 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—a volume stat that measures high-value offensive involvement) has been notably lower this season than it was last season at 53.5.
Marvin Jones's receiving performance has diminished this year, totaling a mere 2.8 yards per game vs 4.3 last year.