Marvin Jones Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 20

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NFL · Player Props

Marvin Jones

WR · Jacksonville Jaguars

Receptions

Kansas City Chiefs vs Jacksonville Jaguars · Week 20, 2022

Updated Jan 21, 2023 9:31 PM UTC

Analysis

Marvin Jones Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 2.5 (-145/+115).

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Jacksonville Jaguars will have a new play-caller this year in head coach Doug Pederson, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to tilt 2.8% more towards passing than it did last year (adjusted for context).
The Jaguars are a giant 8.5-point underdog in this week's contest, likely leading to an extreme passing game script.
The Jaguars rank as the 9th-most pass-heavy offense in the NFL (in a neutral context) this year with a 62.1% pass rate.
The weather report calls for 3-mph wind in this game. Low wind typically means increased pass volume, increased TD potential, and better passing efficiency.
The Jacksonville Jaguars offensive line profiles as the 8th-best in the NFL this year in protecting the passer, which has a positive impact on all passing attack statistics across the board.

Favors Under

THE BLITZ projects the Jaguars to call the 3rd-least plays on offense on the slate this week with 67.8 plays, based on their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
Marvin Jones's 41.5 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—a volume stat that measures high-value offensive involvement) has been notably worse this year than it was last year at 53.5.
Marvin Jones's pass-catching performance declined this year, averaging a measly 2.9 yards per game vs 4.3 last year.
Marvin Jones's sure-handedness have worsened this year, with his Completion% shrinking from 63.5% to 57.2%.
The Jacksonville Jaguars have gone up against a stacked the box on a mere 11.1% of their plays since the start of last season, 3rd-least in the league. Bringing an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the expense of better passing efficiency.