Marvin Jones Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 18

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Marvin Jones

NFL · Player Props

Marvin Jones

WR · Jacksonville Jaguars

Receptions

Jacksonville Jaguars vs Tennessee Titans · Week 18, 2022

Updated Jan 8, 2023 1:11 AM UTC

Analysis

Marvin Jones Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 2.5 (+110/-140).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 2.5 @ +120 before it was bet up to 2.5 @ +110.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Jacksonville Jaguars boast a new play-caller this season in head coach Doug Pederson, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to lean 2.7% more towards passing than it did last season (adjusted for context).
The weather report calls for 2-mph wind in this game. Low wind generally means increased pass volume, increased touchdown potential, and better passing efficiency.
Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 42.4 pass attempts per game versus the Tennessee Titans defense this year: most in the league.
The Jacksonville Jaguars offensive line ranks as the 8th-best in football this year in protecting the passer, which has a strong impact on all air attack statistics across the board.
The Tennessee Titans pass defense has given up the 4th-highest Completion% in football (70.1%) versus wideouts this year (70.1%).

Favors Under

The Jaguars are a 6.5-point favorite in this week's game, likely leading to a rushing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Jaguars to run the 11th-least plays on offense on the slate this week with 64.4 plays, given their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
Marvin Jones's 41.0 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—a volume statistic that measures high-value offensive involvement) has been substantially lower this season than it was last season at 53.5.
Marvin Jones's pass-catching performance declined this season, compiling a measly 2.9 yards per game compared to 4.3 last season.
Marvin Jones's receiving reliability have declined this season, with his Completion% shrinking from 63.5% to 58.5%.

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