Marvin Jones Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 15

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Marvin Jones

NFL · Player Props

Marvin Jones

WR · Jacksonville Jaguars

Receptions

Jacksonville Jaguars vs Dallas Cowboys · Week 15, 2022

Updated Dec 19, 2022 3:51 AM UTC

Analysis

Marvin Jones Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 2.5 (+125/-165).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 2.5 @ +135 before it was bet up to 2.5 @ +125.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Jacksonville Jaguars will have a new play-caller this year in head coach Doug Pederson, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to skew 2.8% more towards passing than it did last year (in a neutral context).
The Jaguars are a 3.5-point underdog in this game, likely creating a passing game script.
The Jaguars rank as the 9th-most pass-oriented offense in the NFL (adjusted for context) this year with a 62.1% pass rate.
THE BLITZ projects this game to see the most plays run out of all the games this week at 139.2 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The Jacksonville Jaguars O-line grades out as the 3rd-best in football this year in protecting the quarterback, which has a strong effect on all passing game stats across the board.

Favors Under

The weather report calls for 13-mph wind in this game. High wind usually means lower pass volume (and increased run volume) and worse passing efficiency.
Marvin Jones's 39.8 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—a volume metric that measures high-value offensive involvement) has been substantially worse this year than it was last year at 53.5.
Marvin Jones's pass-catching performance diminished this year, totaling a measly 2.7 yards per game compared to 4.3 last year.
Marvin Jones's possession skills have tailed off this year, with his Completion% shrinking from 63.5% to 56.3%.
The Dallas Cowboys linebackers project as the 5th-best unit in the league this year in pass coverage.

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