Marvin Jones Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 14

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Marvin Jones

NFL · Player Props

Marvin Jones

WR · Jacksonville Jaguars

Receptions

Tennessee Titans vs Jacksonville Jaguars · Week 14, 2022

Updated Dec 12, 2022 3:56 AM UTC

Analysis

Marvin Jones Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 2.5 (-105/-125).

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Jacksonville Jaguars will have a new play-caller this season in head coach Doug Pederson, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to lean 2.2% more towards passing than it did last season (context-neutralized).
The Jaguars are a 3.5-point underdog in this week's game, indicating a passing game script.
Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 43.4 pass attempts per game against the Tennessee Titans defense this year: most in football.
The Jacksonville Jaguars O-line ranks as the 3rd-best in the league this year in protecting the quarterback, which has a strong impact on all passing game metrics across the board.
The Tennessee Titans pass defense has conceded the 6th-highest Completion% in the NFL (69%) versus wideouts this year (69.0%).

Favors Under

THE BLITZ projects the Jaguars to call the 3rd-least plays on offense on the slate this week with 62.2 plays, accounting for their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
Marvin Jones's 43.2 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—a volume statistic that measures high-value offensive involvement) has been notably lower this season than it was last season at 53.5.
Marvin Jones's receiving skills have tailed off this season, averaging a measly 2.9 yards per game compared to 4.3 last season.
Marvin Jones's receiving reliability have tailed off this year, with his Completion% falling off from 63.5% to 55.4%.
The Tennessee Titans safeties grade out as the 3rd-best safety corps in the league this year in pass coverage.

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