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Marvin Jones

Marvin Jones Receptions
Player Prop Week 13

Detroit Lions vs Jacksonville Jaguars

Marvin Jones Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 2.5 (-135/+105).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 2.5 @ +106 before it was bet down to 2.5 @ +105.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

The Jacksonville Jaguars will have a new play-caller this season in head coach Doug Pederson, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to lean 1.8% more towards passing than it did last season (in a neutral context).

THE BLITZ projects this game to have the 5th-largest volume of plays run among all games this week at 131.8 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.

This game will be played in a dome—which means no wind, increased pass volume, increased touchdown potential, and increased passing efficiency.

Opposing teams have averaged 38.6 pass attempts per game versus the Detroit Lions defense this year: 4th-most in the league.

The Jacksonville Jaguars O-line profiles as the 4th-best in the league this year in protecting the QB, which has a positive impact on all passing attack stats across the board.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

Marvin Jones's 43.3 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—a volume metric that measures high-value offensive involvement) has been significantly lower this season than it was last season at 53.5.

Marvin Jones's pass-catching performance tailed off this year, notching a mere 3.1 yards per game vs 4.3 last year.

Marvin Jones's ball-catching skills have diminished this season, with his Completion% decreasing from 63.5% to 58.1%.

The Jacksonville Jaguars have been faced with a stacked the box on just 11.1% of their plays since the start of last season, 3rd-least in football. Keeping an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the cost of better passing efficiency.

The Jacksonville Jaguars have utilized motion in their offense on 33.0% of their plays since the start of last season (8th-least in football), which usually makes an offense more predictable and less effective.

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