Marvin Jones Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 12

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NFL · Player Props

Marvin Jones

WR · Jacksonville Jaguars

Receptions

Jacksonville Jaguars vs Baltimore Ravens · Week 12, 2022

Updated Nov 28, 2022 12:11 AM UTC

Analysis

Marvin Jones Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 3.5 (+165/-225).

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Jacksonville Jaguars will have a new play-caller this year in head coach Doug Pederson, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to skew 2.0% more towards passing than it did last year (in a neutral context).
The Jaguars are a huge 9.5-point underdog in this week's contest, which points towards an extreme passing game script.
Opposing QBs have averaged 35.9 pass attempts per game vs. the Baltimore Ravens defense this year: 5th-most in the league.
The Jacksonville Jaguars offensive line profiles as the 3rd-best in the NFL this year in protecting the quarterback, which has a positive impact on all passing offense statistics across the board.
The Jacksonville Jaguars offensive line has afforded their quarterback 2.56 seconds before getting pressured (5th-best in the league since the start of last season), which has a strong effect on all air attack stats across the board.

Favors Under

THE BLITZ projects the Jaguars to run the least plays on offense on the slate this week with 62.0 plays, based on their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
The weather forecast calls for 17-mph wind in this game. High wind usually means reduced pass volume (and higher run volume) and worse passing efficiency.
Marvin Jones's 45.9 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—a volume metric that measures high-value offensive involvement) has been significantly lower this year than it was last year at 53.5.
Marvin Jones's receiving talent has worsened this season, totaling a measly 3.0 yards per game compared to 4.3 last season.
Marvin Jones's possession skills have diminished this year, with his Completion% shrinking from 63.4% to 54.7%.