Marvin Jones Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 5

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NFL · Player Props

Marvin Jones

WR · Detroit Lions

Receiving Yards

Detroit Lions vs Carolina Panthers · Week 5, 2023

Updated Oct 8, 2023 5:01 PM EST

Analysis

Marvin Jones Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 18.5 (-109/-119).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 19.5 @ -118 before it was bet down to 18.5 @ -119.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The leading projections forecast the Lions to call the 8th-most total plays on the slate this week with 65.0 plays, given their underlying strategic approach and game dynamics.
This game will be played in a dome—meaning zero wind, increased pass volume, increased TD potential, and better passing efficiency.
The predictive model expects Marvin Jones to be a much bigger part of his offense's air attack this week (10.5% projected Target Share) than he has been this year (5.0% in games he has played).
The Detroit Lions O-line ranks as the 3rd-best in the NFL this year in protecting the QB, which has a strong effect on all air attack statistics across the board.
The Carolina Panthers pass defense has given up the 2nd-highest Adjusted Completion% in the league (71.1%) vs. wide receivers since the start of last season (71.1%).

Favors Under

The Lions are a giant 9.5-point favorite in this week's contest, indicating an extreme rushing game script.
Accounting for their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics, the leading projections forecast the Detroit Lions to pass on 54.0% of their plays: the 4th-lowest clip on the slate this week.
Opposing teams teams have been reluctant to lean on the pass against the Panthers, averaging the 5th-fewest attempts in the league (a mere 30.2 per game) this year.
Marvin Jones has compiled significantly fewer air yards this season (11.0 per game) than he did last season (71.0 per game).
Marvin Jones has been among the least sure-handed receivers in the league, hauling in just 55.9% of passes thrown his way (adjusted for context) since the start of last season, checking in at the 5th percentile among wideouts