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Marvin Jones Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 10.5 (-105/-115).
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FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
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The forecast calls for 4-mph wind in this game. Low wind usually means increased pass volume, and lower ground volume, increased touchdown potential, and better passing effectiveness.Marvin Jones has been a much smaller part of his team's offense this year, playing on just 49.5% of snaps vs 62.4% last year.When it comes to air yards, Marvin Jones grades out in the towering 75th percentile among wide receivers since the start of last season, accumulating a whopping 62.0 per game.The Green Bay Packers pass defense has shown weak efficiency against wide receivers since the start of last season, allowing 9.22 yards-per-target to the position: the 2nd-most in the league.
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FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
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The model projects the Lions as the 7th-least pass-oriented offense on the slate this week with a 54.9% pass rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.The leading projections forecast this game to have the 5th-lowest volume of plays run out of all the games this week at 126.8 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.The Lions have played in the 2nd-most "low wind" (4-mph or less) games in football since the start of last season, which should mean reduced pass volume, higher running volume, and reduced passing attack performance when facing windier conditions in this week's game.Opposing offenses have averaged 29.4 pass attempts per game versus the Green Bay Packers defense since the start of last season: 2nd-fewest in the NFL.The Lions offensive line profiles as the 7th-worst in the NFL since the start of last season in protecting the passer, which has a negative effect on all passing game stats across the board.
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