Marvin Jones Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 6

NFL · Player Props

Marvin Jones

WR · Jacksonville Jaguars

Receiving Yards

Indianapolis Colts vs Jacksonville Jaguars · Week 6, 2022

Updated Oct 15, 2022 6:36 PM EST

Analysis

Marvin Jones Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 40.5 (-103/-125).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 39.5 @ -112 before it was bet up to 40.5 @ -103.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Jacksonville Jaguars will have a new play-caller this season in head coach Doug Pederson, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to lean 2.9% more towards passing than it did last season (in a neutral context).
THE BLITZ projects the Jacksonville Jaguars as the 5th-most pass-centric team among all teams this week with a 62.9% pass rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
This game will be played in a dome—meaning no wind, increased pass volume, increased touchdown potential, and increased passing efficiency.
The Jacksonville Jaguars O-line ranks as the 3rd-best in football this year in protecting the quarterback, which has a strong impact on all passing attack metrics across the board.
The Indianapolis Colts linebackers profile as the worst unit in football this year in covering receivers.

Favors Under

The Indianapolis Colts defense has given up the 4th-least receiving yards per game in the league (just 133.0) vs. wideouts this year.
The Indianapolis Colts pass defense has surrendered the 7th-lowest Completion% in football (62.9%) versus wideouts this year (62.9%).
The Indianapolis Colts pass defense has displayed good efficiency versus WRs this year, yielding 7.76 yards-per-target to the position: the 9th-least in the league.
The Jacksonville Jaguars have faced a stacked the box on a mere 11.1% of their plays since the start of last season, 3rd-least in the NFL. Positioning an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the expense of better passing efficiency.
The Indianapolis Colts have stacked the box vs. opponents on just 13.1% of their plays since the start of last season, 8th-least in the NFL. Choosing not to bring an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves pass defense at the expense of run-stopping.