Marvin Jones Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 5

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NFL · Player Props

Marvin Jones

WR · Jacksonville Jaguars

Receiving Yards

Jacksonville Jaguars vs Houston Texans · Week 5, 2022

Updated Oct 9, 2022 11:15 PM UTC

Analysis

Marvin Jones Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 36.5 (+105/-150).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 36.5 @ -120 before it was bet down to 36.5 @ -150.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Jacksonville Jaguars boast a new play-caller this season in head coach Doug Pederson, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to lean 2.3% more towards passing than it did last season (context-neutralized).
THE BLITZ projects the Jaguars to call the 6th-most plays on offense among all teams this week with 66.4 plays, accounting for their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
The Jacksonville Jaguars O-line profiles as the 8th-best in the NFL this year in protecting the passer, which has a positive effect on all pass game stats across the board.
The Houston Texans defense has conceded the 7th-most receiving yards per game in the NFL (189.0) versus WRs this year.
The Houston Texans pass defense has exhibited bad efficiency vs. wideouts this year, surrendering 9.71 yards-per-target to the position: the 4th-most in the NFL.

Favors Under

The Jaguars are a huge 7-point favorite in this game, likely creating an extreme rushing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Jacksonville Jaguars to be the 11th-least pass-oriented team on the slate this week with a 56.6% pass rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
The weatherman calls for 12-mph wind in this game. High wind typically means reduced pass volume (and higher run volume) and decreased passing effectiveness.
Marvin Jones has accrued significantly fewer air yards this season (68.0 per game) than he did last season (84.0 per game).
Marvin Jones's 43.2 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—a volume stat that measures high-value offensive involvement) has been notably lower this season than it was last season at 53.5.