Marvin Jones Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 4

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Marvin Jones

NFL · Player Props

Marvin Jones

WR · Jacksonville Jaguars

Receiving Yards

Philadelphia Eagles vs Jacksonville Jaguars · Week 4, 2022

Updated Oct 2, 2022 11:20 PM UTC

Analysis

Marvin Jones Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 45.5 (+115/-145).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 39.5 @ +106 before it was bet up to 45.5 @ +115.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Jacksonville Jaguars will have a new play-caller this year in head coach Doug Pederson, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to tilt 2.0% more towards passing than it did last year (adjusted for context).
The Jaguars are a 6.5-point underdog in this game, likely creating a passing game script.
THE BLITZ projects this game to see the 2nd-highest volume of plays run on the slate this week at 135.4 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 35.9 pass attempts per game vs. the Philadelphia Eagles defense since the start of last season: 10th-most in football.
Marvin Jones has run a route on 92.6% of his team's passing plays since the start of last season, placing him in the 92nd percentile among wide receivers.

Favors Under

The Jacksonville Jaguars have run the 9th-least plays in football since the start of last season, totaling a mere 58.0 plays per game.
The forecast calls for 17-mph wind in this game. High wind usually means reduced pass volume (and higher run volume) and lessened passing effectiveness.
Marvin Jones's pass-catching efficiency has declined this season, notching a mere 6.09 yards-per-target vs a 7.62 figure last season.
Marvin Jones has been among the weakest wideouts in football at grinding out extra yardage, averaging a measly 2.45 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) this year while ranking in the 16th percentile.
The Philadelphia Eagles defense has surrendered the 3rd-least receiving yards per game in football (just 126.0) to WRs since the start of last season.

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