Marvin Jones Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 3

NFL · Player Props

Marvin Jones

WR · Jacksonville Jaguars

Receiving Yards

Los Angeles Chargers vs Jacksonville Jaguars · Week 3, 2022

Updated Sep 25, 2022 11:30 PM EST

Analysis

Marvin Jones Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 36.5 (-114/-114).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 43.5 @ -119 before it was bet down to 36.5 @ -114.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Jacksonville Jaguars will have a new play-caller this year in head coach Doug Pederson, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to lean 2.0% more towards passing than it did last year (context-neutralized).
The Jaguars are a 6.5-point underdog in this game, indicating a passing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Jacksonville Jaguars to be the 5th-most pass-centric offense among all teams this week with a 62.8% pass rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects the Jacksonville Jaguars as the 8th-quickest paced defense in the league (adjusted for context) at the present time, leading opposing offenses to average 26.56 seconds per play.
Marvin Jones has run a route on 93.1% of his team's passing plays since the start of last season, putting him in the 93rd percentile among wideouts.

Favors Under

Marvin Jones's pass-game efficiency has diminished this year, averaging just 6.33 yards-per-target compared to a 7.62 mark last year.
Marvin Jones has been among the bottom wide receivers in the NFL at generating extra yardage, averaging just 2.21 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) since the start of last season while grading out in the 1st percentile.
The Los Angeles Chargers defense has allowed the 6th-least receiving yards per game in football (just 132.0) to wide receivers since the start of last season.
The Jacksonville Jaguars have gone up against a stacked the box on a measly 11.1% of their plays since the start of last season, 3rd-least in football. Bringing an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the expense of better passing efficiency.
The Los Angeles Chargers have stacked the box against opponents on just 13.8% of their plays since the start of last season, 10th-least in football. Choosing not to position an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves pass defense at the expense of run-stopping.