Marvin Jones Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 17

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Marvin Jones

NFL · Player Props

Marvin Jones

WR · Jacksonville Jaguars

Receiving Yards

Houston Texans vs Jacksonville Jaguars · Week 17, 2022

Updated Jan 1, 2023 5:16 PM EST

Analysis

Marvin Jones Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 22.5 (-114/-114).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 23.5 @ -119 before it was bet down to 22.5 @ -114.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Jacksonville Jaguars will have a new play-caller this season in head coach Doug Pederson, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to lean 2.8% more towards passing than it did last season (in a neutral context).
The Jaguars have been the 9th-most pass-centric team in the league (adjusted for context) this year with a 61.7% pass rate.
THE BLITZ projects the Jacksonville Jaguars as the 10th-quickest paced defense in the league (adjusted for context) at the present time, with opposing offenses averaging 27.69 seconds per play.
This game will be played in a dome—meaning zero wind, increased pass volume, increased touchdown potential, and increased passing effectiveness.
The Jacksonville Jaguars offensive line profiles as the 8th-best in the league this year in protecting the QB, which has a strong effect on all passing attack statistics across the board.

Favors Under

The Jaguars are a 3.5-point favorite in this week's game, which points towards a rushing game script.
Opposing offenses have averaged 32.6 pass attempts per game versus the Houston Texans defense this year: 6th-least in the NFL.
Marvin Jones has notched significantly fewer air yards this season (71.0 per game) than he did last season (84.0 per game).
Marvin Jones's 39.7 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—a volume statistic that measures high-value offensive involvement) has been quite a bit worse this season than it was last season at 53.5.
Marvin Jones has posted quite a few less receiving yards per game (32.0) this year than he did last year (51.0).

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